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Sweden consistently ranks as one of the top two G10 economies, along with Japan, in terms of gross domestic expenditure on research and development, with a relatively high share of spending financed by industry.

  • Forecasts

    Inflation will strengthen due to rising labour costs and trade barriers, leading bond yields and spreads up from lows. SEK is extremely low and should rise on high competitiveness and lower risk aversion. download »
  • FX Notes

    Despite rising interest rate differentials being in prospect, the Swedish krona has set a fresh multi-decade low. We therefore remain comfortable with our long SEK position. download »
  • Focus Notes

    Through QE, central banks have expanded their government debt holdings. Were purchases maintained in Japan and in the euro area, debt sustainability would improve sharply in less than a decade. download »
  • Economics

    • GDP growth has risen a little, with net trade still the key support. Inflation is slightly below target, despite average wage and productivity growth. Fiscal and external surpluses persist. download »
  • Markets

    • SEK is close to its real low. Markets price a some chance of one 25bp hike in the repo rate over the next year. Yields are close to record lows, the curve is inverted and spreads are low. Equities have outperformed. download »
  • Investing

    • Rising inflation should eventually trigger more rate hikes than elsewhere. Bond yields stand to rise significantly, even before further tightening. SEK looks undervalued and likely to appreciate as risk appetite returns. download »