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Norway is the richest of the G10 economies on a per-capita basis, largely thanks to its earnings from petroleum exports. Its sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund Global, is the largest in the world.

  • Forecasts

    Rate hikes will resume as inflation rises. NOK is very low and will strengthen, supported by the external surplus and higher interest rate differentials. Yields will rise by less than global yields. download »
  • FX Notes

    NOK is near historical lows despite a solid economic environment, rising interest rate differentials and huge external assets. We have been increasing the size of our NOK long position. download »
  • Focus Notes

    Global trend employment, and thereby GDP, growth stands to be weighed down increasingly by slower population growth and ageing, and past offsets from rising female participation may diminish. download »
  • Economics

    • Investment has boosted GDP growth and unemployment flatlined at low levels. Headline inflation is running slightly below target. The external surplus has shrunk, but the fiscal surplus remains very large. download »
  • Markets

    • NOK has slipped further below its real mean. Markets price in no change in policy rates over the coming 15 months. Yields are close to lows, the curve has flattened and is inverted. Equities have underperformed. download »
  • Investing

    • Short-term interest rates may need to keep rising. Bond yields are very low and highly likely to increase in coming years. Higher interest rate differentials and large external assets should lift NOK. download »