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Canada is the fifth largest energy producer in the world, with proved oil reserves, almost exclusively in the form of oil sands resources, that are the third largest globally. It is the principal energy supplier to the US.

  • Forecasts

    Spare resources may rise amid weaker activity but inflationary pressures will remain. Monetary tightening will resume as inflation rises above 2% and is sustained. Yields will rise but spreads will fall. download »
  • FX Notes

    The Canadian dollar has been little changed in 2020, continuing the pattern of recent years. CAD does not look obviously mispriced but we are happy to use it as part of our basket of funding currencies. download »
  • Focus Notes

    Global trend employment, and thereby GDP, growth stands to be weighed down increasingly by slower population growth and ageing, and past offsets from rising female participation may diminish. download »
  • Economics

    • GDP growth was moderate in Q3 but domestic demand stronger. Unemployment is very low, capacity utilisation around average and inflation stable at target. The external deficit is slightly larger; the budget is in small deficit. download »
  • Markets

    • CAD is a tad below its real mean. Futures price in 50bp of rate cuts by Dec 2021. Yields have nudged up, spreads remain high and the curve remains inverted. Equities have underperformed. download »
  • Investing

    • Policy will stay accommodative until domestic conditions urge a change. Bond yields should rise from low levels but perhaps less than elsewhere. While not clearly mispriced, CAD remains an attractive funding currency. download »